By Abraham C.-L. Chian
Fiscal platforms convey complicated dynamics evidenced via large-amplitude and aperiodic fluctuations in fiscal variables, equivalent to foreign currency echange premiums and inventory industry costs, indicating that those platforms are pushed faraway from the equilibrium. Characterization of the advanced habit of monetary cycles, through selecting normal and abnormal styles and regime switching in monetary time sequence, is the foremost for trend reputation and forecasting of monetary cycles. Statistical research of inventory markets and foreign currency markets has established the intermittent nature of financial time sequence. A nonlinear version of commercial cycles is ready to simulate intermittency bobbing up from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new recommendations of volatile periodic orbits and chaotic saddles that are risky constructions embedded in a chaotic attractor, answerable for fiscal intermittency.
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Additional info for Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics
3. 98311 these two frequencies as the control parameters are varied. The system is phase-locked (synchronized) if the ratio of these two frequencies is a rational number; its associated solution is then periodic. After the phase-locked solution is destroyed in a saddle-node bifurcation, the solution becomes chaotic. Type-I intermittency results from the transition from order to chaos via a saddle-node bifurcation (Strogatz 1994). 98312 A1 2 x 13745 0 A2 −2 −4 948 966 984 1002 1020 driver cycles Fig.
Poincar´e map in the vicinity of CA1 (same region as Fig. 2(b)). 98766). The crosses denote the Poincar´e points of the mediating unstable periodic orbit of period-3; the dark lines (dark points) denote the chaotic attractors (CA1 and MCA); the light lines denote the stable/unstable manifolds (SM/UM) of the mediating saddle. 1(c). 1 shows that there are many chaotic regions within a periodic window and there are many periodic windows within a 58 5 Attractor Merging Crisis in Nonlinear Economic Cycles MCA MC a CA1 /CA2 SNB SNB M1 M2 SNB A1 SNB A2 Fig.
3 Type-I Intermittency in Nonlinear Economic Cycles In this chapter, the intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is studied by a nonlinear model of business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from order to chaos, the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of low-level apparently periodic (quiescent) and high-level turbulent (bursting) activities. This model of economic intermittency exhibits power-law spectrum similar to the nonlinear time series observed in ﬁnancial markets.
Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics by Abraham C.-L. Chian